2026: A Year of Peace?

Susanne Gratius, Academic Coordinator of the Gate Center and Full Professor of International Relations, UAM

Without a doubt, 2025 will not go down in history as a year of peace. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), in 2025 some 240,000 people died in violent clashes, an increase of 23% compared to the previous period. With more than 82,000 and 21,000 fatalities respectively as of July 2025, Gaza and Ukraine have been the deadliest conflicts. Violence and wars have also forced 120 million people to flee to other territories.

Donald Trump did not fulfill his campaign promise to end the war in Ukraine and only managed to achieve a lukewarm truce in the Gaza conflict, which Israel continues to violate, as well as the delivery of humanitarian aid to a territory rendered uninhabitable after more than two years of Israeli bombardments. The President of the United States did not win the Nobel Peace Prize, which the committee in Norway awarded to his ally, the Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado. U.S. military attacks by sea and land against drug trafficking in the Caribbean Sea demonstrate a strategy of brute force by President Trump, who declared Latin America a priority zone in his security strategy.

What can be expected from 2026? Given the difficulties of implementing unilateral U.S. peace plans to end the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, their continuation is the most likely scenario—hopefully on a lower scale. Other violent conflicts, such as those in Sudan or Libya, will also persist, without media attention or new resolution initiatives comparable to those of Gaza and Ukraine.

The year 2026 began on January 1 with the 40th anniversary of Spain’s entry into the European Economic Community (EEC), where it consolidated itself as the fourth-largest economy. Ninety years ago, the Spanish Civil War began, leading to forty years of dictatorship, until 1976, when the transition to democracy started, culminating in the Spanish Constitution and the first democratic elections.

In Europe, 2026 opens with Bulgaria’s entry as the 21st member of the Eurozone and coincides with the tenth anniversary of Brexit. The United Kingdom is gradually reintegrating—though not formally—into the EU through programs such as Erasmus and Horizon Europe. Although none of the EU’s 27 member states followed the UK’s path, the Union faces another existential crisis, caused by the collapse of the transatlantic relationship following Trump’s alliance with Vladimir Putin and his open disdain for the EU.

On the one hand, this crisis requires the construction of a common European security and defense policy to continue supporting Ukraine and to replace the United States. On the other, it forces the diversification of economic relations to counter U.S. protectionism. At stake is the EU’s credibility as a beacon of free trade if it fails to approve—in January—the association agreement with MERCOSUR, blocked by France and Italy, together with Austria and Poland, despite farmers representing less than 4.2% of the labor force. Failure to sign the agreement would leave the EU in a more marginal position in Latin America vis-à-vis China and the United States and would undermine its free-trade narrative.

The most consequential event of the year will undoubtedly be the U.S. congressional elections on November 3, which will shape the second half of Donald Trump’s term. Discontent among his electorate is growing. According to December 2025 polls, his approval stands at 40–45%, down from more than half at the beginning of his second term. If Democrats regain Congress, or at least the House of Representatives, they could curb the President’s most extreme proposals and restore the system of checks and balances, which had largely disappeared during the first two years of his term.

The second major election in the Americas will be Brazil’s presidential election, also in the second half of the year. A new victory for Lula da Silva would be an important counterweight to illiberal populist leaders such as José Antonio Kast, Javier Milei, Daniel Noboa, and Nayib Bukele. A victory for the Bolsonaro-aligned opposition would strengthen the right-wing alliance across the continent. Notably, 2026 marks 50 years since the beginning of Argentina’s dictatorship, the bloodiest in recent Latin American history.

At the international level, the election of the UN Secretary-General in summer 2026 will signal the future of multilateralism. The current Secretary-General, António Guterres, has fought with limited success against the erosion of global governance, following the U.S. withdrawal from climate negotiations and the marginalization of the UN in peace plans for Gaza and Ukraine. The UN’s role has increasingly been reduced to that of a mere observer, while figures like Donald Trump, who rejects international organizations, dominate the global stage.

Among the 13 unofficial candidates for the UN leadership, seven are from Latin America, including Michelle Bachelet, Rafael Grossi, and former foreign ministers from Bolivia and Mexico. A Latin American—preferably female—Secretary-General would enhance the region’s international visibility and representation, continuing a tradition of leadership exemplified by Ángel Gurría at the OECD or Pope Francis.

Meanwhile, forums based on national interests, such as the BRICS and the G20, are filling the power vacuum left by weakened international organizations. In 2026, the 18th BRICS+5 Summit will take place in India, and the year will conclude with the G20 Summit in Miami, as Washington assumes the presidency of the group. The Summit of the Americas will also be held in Orlando in March, after being postponed due to U.S. military operations in the Caribbean. Finally, Spain will host the 30th Ibero-American Summit in early November, with hopes of stronger participation than in recent years.

In short, 2026 will be a decisive year for the United States, shaping the future of the United Nations and the unresolved conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, despite unilateral U.S. mediation efforts. At the same time, one may hope that the European Union overcomes its existential crisis and that the year ahead proves more peaceful than the last.