BottleNeck GATE

It is a synthetic indicator that covers the tensions, both of prices and volume, in the supply of raw materials and of industrial goods to the Western countries. It is based on four maritime trade indicators, which amounts to 90 % of the world trade: the Dry Baltic Index (of prices for the maritime transport of agricultural raw materials), the CCFI (a cargo volume index from different Chinese ports), the HARPEX (index of prices for sea containers) and the CONTEX (sea cargo volume index of the ports of Hamburg and Bremen). From these four indicators a synthetic indicator is developed, the BottleNeck GATE, which is a weighted average of the said indexes. The weights are obtained from the explanatory power, obtained by a regression analysis, from each of said indicators in the evolution of the industrial prices, both from the OECD and the Euro area. The BottleNeck GATE index is monthly and takes a 100 base in January 2010. A rise in the index is a sign that the bottle necks are getting worse and vice versa.

From 2010 to 2021 the BottleNeck GATE index has remained relatively stable, with oscillations. From the end of 2020, the recovery of the demand due to the prospects for economic reactivation with the arrival of the vaccine and the consequent decrease in the severity of the pandemic, along with the lack of flexibility in the supply shot up the bottle necks index. At the end of the year 2021 it seemed that the index was improving, although far from the pre-pandemic levels. The crisis in Ukraine will undoubtedly imply a new deterioration of the BottleNeck Gate index.