COP30 in Belém: a historic climate summit or just another empty promise?

Jacqueline A. Haffner, professor at the Department of Economics and International Relations (DERI). Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Brazil

COP30, held from November 10 to November 21, 2025, in Belém do Pará, Brazil, has been described by many as one of the most symbolic and decisive climate conferences in recent history. This was not only because of its location—at the heart of the Amazon—but also because of the global context in which it took place: an intensifying climate crisis, growing social pressure for environmental justice, and an urgent need to move from words to action. During this edition, debates focused on the transition toward sustainable models in key sectors such as energy, industry, and transportation. These topics were addressed with particular emphasis on the need to accelerate decarbonization, promote clean technologies, and ensure that this transformation is just and inclusive for Global South countries and the most vulnerable communities.

The choice of Belém as host was not accidental. For the first time, a Conference of the Parties (COP) was held in the Amazon, a region crucial for the planet’s climate regulation and home to thousands of Indigenous and traditional communities. The Amazon acts as a massive carbon sink, absorbing millions of tons of CO₂ every year, and its preservation is essential to preventing global warming from reaching irreversible tipping points. This decision sought to highlight the importance of tropical biomes and the role of Indigenous peoples in their protection. According to the UN, COP30 was meant to be “a summit of implementation,” where commitments made under the Paris Agreement would be translated into concrete actions.

The summit unfolded against an alarming backdrop: 2025 is shaping up to be one of the hottest years ever recorded, with extreme events such as hurricanes, wildfires, and droughts affecting millions of people. The science is clear: “the world is far from achieving the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.” Emissions continue to rise and national pledges (NDCs) remain insufficient. In this sense, the Belém summit was a wake-up call. Countries were urged to update their climate targets and establish stricter accountability mechanisms. Pressure on governments and major companies to act—rather than merely speak—was stronger than ever.

One of the most remarkable aspects of COP30 was the unprecedented participation of Indigenous peoples. More than 3,000 representatives from Indigenous communities across Latin America, Africa, and Asia gathered in Belém, setting up an “Indigenous village” parallel to the official summit. In addition, the first Indigenous Women’s Summit was held, where participants denounced the differentiated impacts of climate change on women and proposed solutions grounded in ancestral knowledge. These voices demanded climate justice and recognition that the peoples who have contributed least to global warming are the ones suffering its most severe consequences.

During the conference, the energy transition was a central topic, approached not only as an urgent environmental necessity but also as an imperative for social justice. The importance of progressively moving away from fossil fuels and accelerating the adoption of renewable energy was acknowledged, but developing countries insisted that this process must be fair and equitable. They argued that they cannot take on the same commitments as industrialized nations without financial and technological support, since their economies depend more heavily on fossil fuels, face high levels of energy poverty, and lack adequate infrastructure. In this context, it was emphasized that countries with the greatest historical responsibility for emissions (the United States, China, Russia, Germany, and the United Kingdom) must lead climate financing, facilitate technology transfer, and ensure that vulnerable communities participate in energy planning. It was made clear that without social justice, there can be no climate justice, and that the energy transition must promote equity, inclusion, and sustainable development.

Climate financing again became a point of tension, especially for Global South countries, which denounced the persistent insufficiency and unfulfilled nature of financial commitments made by developed nations. Although a plan was announced to mobilize at least $1.3 trillion annually through 2035, many delegations expressed concern over the lack of clarity regarding distribution criteria, governance mechanisms, and the participation of recipient countries in decision-making. Innovative funding mechanisms—including taxes on aviation, luxury goods, and large fortunes—were also discussed to support the global fund. The absence of the United States at the summit was interpreted as a sign of weakening traditional climate leadership. The event featured the presence of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who led meetings with representatives from the European Union, Arab countries, China, India, Indonesia, and Africa, as well as with civil society and Indigenous peoples. However, Arab countries, heavily dependent on oil, opposed stronger language against fossil fuels, preventing the final declaration from being more forceful.

An emerging issue in this edition was the role of artificial intelligence (AI) as a key tool in the fight against climate change, but also as a challenge requiring regulation and critical oversight. On one hand, AI was recognized as capable of significantly contributing to sustainability by optimizing resource use, improving energy efficiency, enabling better crop and water management, and enhancing the ability to anticipate extreme weather events. These applications are especially valuable in contexts of high climate vulnerability. However, several actors warned about the collateral effects of this technology. The ecological footprint of AI—stemming from the energy consumption of data centers and the hardware required for its operation—was highlighted as a contradiction in its environmental use. It was established that artificial intelligence is not neutral; its design, implementation, and governance must align with principles of climate justice, cultural inclusion, and respect for human rights.

As final outcomes, COP30 delivered important technical advances, with the approval of the Belém Package by 195 countries, adopting 29 decisions covering just transition, adaptation financing, trade, gender, and technology, all aimed at placing equity and people at the center of climate action. For the first time, a common set of indicators was agreed upon to measure how countries prepare for extreme events. In addition, 122 countries presented new emission-reduction targets. Brazil launched the Tropical Forests Forever Fund, aimed at financing forest conservation. A voluntary initiative was approved for countries wishing to accelerate emissions reductions and advance the gradual phase-out of fossil fuels. However, the final text avoided mandatory commitments on oil, gas, and coal, generating criticism. It was highlighted that, ten years after the Paris Agreement, global investments in clean energy (renewables, nuclear, grids, storage, efficiency) now reach US$2.2 trillion—double the amount directed toward fossil fuels (US$1.1 trillion).

COP30 showcased Brazil’s relevance as host and the presence of global leaders, but it also revealed how alliances among Arab countries and other major emitters limited the ambition of the final text. Ultimately, the legacy of Belém will not be defined by the promises made, but by the ability to turn them into concrete actions. Only if the commitments made are transformed into effective public policies, sustainable investments, and structural changes will COP30 mark a true turning point in the climate struggle. Otherwise, it will stand as a missed opportunity, prolonging tensions and the urgency that will inevitably fall upon the 2026 negotiations.