COP30 IN THE AMAZON: Flop or turning point for the climate change regime?
Angélica Saraiva Szucko, PhD and Master’s in International Relations, University of Brasília
Global warming has entered a critical phase. The most recent data confirm that the increase in global temperature has already, at specific moments, exceeded the 1.5°C threshold compared to pre-industrial levels, reinforcing the perception that climate change has ceased to be a future threat and has become a reality with immediate political, economic, and social consequences.
In this context, COP30 held in Belém (Brazil) marked a turning point in the international climate change regime, as it coincided with the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement and highlighted the urgency of moving from negotiation to the effective implementation of climate commitments.
This AnálisisGATE examines how the Brazilian presidency sought to promote the so-called “COP of implementation,” combining formal negotiations with an action-oriented agenda aimed at mobilizing multiple stakeholders. The document analyzes the main advances achieved in adaptation, a just climate transition, finance, technology transfer, and gender and climate, as well as the structural limits of the current climate regime: the exhaustion of the consensus-based decision-making model, the absence of binding compliance mechanisms, and the difficulties in advancing the phase-out of fossil fuels.