Taking Stock: Four months after the Invasion of Ukraine
Four months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Miguel Sebastián, academic coordinator of GATE Center, analyzes the main consequences.
Economically, both Russia and Ukraine have seen their GDPs fall considerably and the blockade of Ukrainian exports has put the world’s wheat supply at serious risk. For its part, Europe is facing unprecedented inflation, a defense and military spending dilemma and NATO enlargement, as well as the difficult management of the largest refugee crisis of this century. Finally, China, whose economic growth managed to overcome the pandemic in 2020, is now facing a significant slowdown in its convergence process with US GDP and a geopolitical and geostrategic dilemma regarding its position with Russia.