Future Summit 2024: Towards a better future for the next generations?

Autora: Lic. María Paula Ballesteros. Gate Center Octubre 2024

A few days ago, the Future Summit was held at the United Nations headquarters in New York, the product of months of negotiation and discussion between the main world powers and key civil society actors. The event sought to revitalise multilateralism at a time when the mechanisms of international cooperation are severely weakened, or as the Finnish leader Alexander Stubb was heard to say in one of the Summit’s dialogues, ‘in a world governed by a “transactional disorder and a multipolar disorder”.

Three key documents were adopted at the Summit: the Compact for the Future (containing 56 actions), the Global Digital Compact and the Declaration on Future Generations. The Compact for the Future was adopted by consensus – with some reluctance and abstentions – and emerges as a milestone to transform the United Nations (UN) system and adapt it to the challenges of the 21st century. It was approved by the majority of countries during the Summit. However, there was a last minute amendment attempt by Russia that led to its negative vote on the Compact document, which was followed by 6 more countries (Belarus, North Korea, Iran, Nicaragua, Sudan and Syria). There were also 16 countries that abstained from voting: Argentina, Algeria, Bolivia, China, Cuba, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kiribati, Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Oman, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka and Thailand).

An international scenario where discouragement is the rule is made even worse by the acceleration of existential challenges such as climate change or the consequences of the misuse of technologies such as artificial intelligence. And if we add to this the Covid 19 pandemic and the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, which demonstrate the dysfunctionality of global governance to guarantee peace and security, it becomes necessary and urgent to activate new instruments and challenges that provide peaceful and sustainable solutions to these new risks.

The Summit not only put on the table the urgent need for structural reforms in the UN system, but also highlighted the importance of including non-governmental actors (NGOs, private sector and civil society) in global solutions, in order to address current problems in a more inclusive way. Also on this occasion, youth were called upon to express themselves by convening a youth day that took place two days before the Summit.

On this occasion, opinions were more sceptical about the real impact and fulfilment of the Pact and were more oriented towards emphatically calling for the fulfilment of concrete policies against climate change, gender discrimination, racism, inequalities, poverty and the digital divide.

The Security Council’s inaction and the need to reform it

One of the central themes of the Future Summit was the insistence on the UN Security Council’s inability to act effectively in the face of growing violence in the world. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as the conflicts in Sudan and Syria, have exposed the paralysis of this key organ of the UN system. The right of veto, reserved for the five permanent powers (the US, Russia, China, France and the UK), has blocked the most urgent resolutions, creating a decades-long stalemate in the search for peaceful solutions.

The inaction of the Security Council has led to the UN being perceived as an ineffective actor in resolving the world’s most urgent conflicts. Added to this is the erosion of the concept of the International Community, understood as the collective system of the United Nations, as more and more nations resort to unilateral actions or alliances outside the UN framework with the excuse of protecting their national interests. And such a stance cannot be criticised in the face of the current system’s inaction. That is why a reform and restructuring of this international organisation, which was conceived with a post-war logic, is so necessary, and as Secretary General Antonio Guterres said: ‘We cannot create a future for our grandchildren with institutions built for our grandparents’. ¹

The Future Summit made it clear that Security Council reform is a priority. The current structure that was devised after the Second World War, even with minor updates, does not reflect contemporary geopolitical realities. Entire regions such as Africa, Latin America and parts of Asia remain under-represented, while the five permanent members continue to monopolise major decisions over regions (Africa) that are not permanently represented in the body.

In its point on UN Security Council reform, the Pact for the Future highlights the urgent need to make the Council more representative, inclusive, transparent, efficient, effective, democratic and accountable. This is the only way to ensure that the body responds adequately to today’s conflicts.

A number of concrete actions were mentioned to take the reform forward, among them:

1. Strengthening intergovernmental negotiations: Member states commit to intensify their efforts in the framework of these negotiations, indicating that Security Council reform is an immediate priority and can no longer be postponed.
2. Relationship between the Security Council and the General Assembly: The aim is to improve the relationship between the two organs, ensuring that the Security Council is aligned with the broader interests of the international community and not just those of a few countries.

Overall, the paper underlines the importance of the Security Council ensuring that international peace and security is maintained in a fairer and more effective manner, in a context of increasing global challenges. The paper emphasises the need to reform and limit the use of the veto to make the Council more effective and democratic. It is suggested that the veto should not be used in a way that impedes Council action in critical situations, especially on issues of gross human rights violations, genocide, war crimes or armed conflicts affecting international peace and security.

The veto reform proposal aims to reduce the abuse of this tool and make Security Council decisions more reflective of the global consensus. In addition, it promotes the idea of accountability in the use of the veto, which implies that permanent members must publicly justify their reasons when they use it, which would increase transparency and accountability.

In short, limiting the use of the veto is seen as an essential step towards strengthening the legitimacy of the Security Council and improving its capacity to act more swiftly and fairly in the face of international crises. Proposals linked to a vote involving a qualified majority if its use is requested may contribute to this balance, but fall short because it is still the five permanent members who decide, as is currently the case.

The Pact for the Future also addresses regional representation and the incorporation of new members in the Security Council as part of the reforms needed to make it more inclusive and representative. However, nothing concrete has been clarified or proposed as to who these future members would be.

Security Council reform is one of the most debated issues within the UN system, and 2025 seems to be a decisive year, when it will be possible to see whether the proposals and lines of work that emerge from previous meetings and the final document of the Pact for the Future are viable.

However, the exact number of additional members remains a matter of debate. Expansion in itself could improve geographical representation, making the Council more inclusive, but it could also slow down decision-making, given the need to obtain more consensus among a larger number of actors.

On the other hand, convincing powers such as Russia or the US to reduce the use or even abandon the veto is one of the biggest barriers. This is because the veto is considered one of the pillars of their influence within the Council. Potential strategies include:

1. Partial or conditional reforms: A more moderate approach could propose limiting the use of the veto in certain situations, such as mass human rights violations or genocide. Initiatives already exist, such as the code of conduct promoted by countries like France and Mexico, which urge permanent members to refrain from using the veto in cases of mass atrocities.
2. Diplomatic incentives: A combination of intense bilateral diplomacy and reforms in other areas of the UN (such as reconfiguring funding or assigning responsibilities for peace missions) could generate greater interest in the US or Russia to accept limited reforms. But this is a complex process, as both countries would see the weakening of the veto as a significant loss of power.
3. International pressure: Pressure from the international community could be influential, albeit modest. Nations that have traditionally been excluded from the core of power at the UN have pushed for reforms that would reduce the weight of the veto, but the influence of external actors on the US or Russia remains limited.

Beyond the guidelines of the Pact for the Future, no definitive agreements on enlargement or veto have been reached to date. Discussions have stalled due to deep differences among member nations, especially among the major powers. However, some smaller reforms, such as promoting greater transparency in the selection processes of non-permanent members, have made progress.

Enlargement of the Security Council can increase the institution’s representation and legitimacy, making it more democratic and more reflective of today’s multipolar world.

Inclusion of new members

In order to make a proposal for the inclusion of new permanent or non-permanent members that would effectively bring the Security Council more in line with the realities of today’s world, relevant factors should be taken into account that define the specific weight and capacity of influence that they currently have. Some of these criteria for inclusion could be those countries that have participated the most times as non-permanent members since the Council’s creation. On the other hand, it would be important to consider GDP or population size as a criterion but should also ensure a more balanced representation of the different regions of the world. Another important criterion that could be taken would be to incorporate those countries that have demonstrated a strong commitment to multilateralism, diplomacy and peacekeeping missions should be considered for a permanent or non-permanent seat (Japan is an example of this) as well as countries that play a key role in regional stability and cooperation could act as effective representatives on the Council, helping to channel the concerns of regional blocs (for example South Africa within the African Union or Brazil within Mercosur).

In addition, a country’s ability to contribute to the Security Council’s core mission of maintaining international peace and security could be added as an important criterion for membership. This includes the provision of troops, financial resources and diplomatic support for UN peace missions. (India is one of the largest contributors of troops to UN peacekeeping missions).

Finally, an indispensable criterion should be the incorporation of members who are able to negotiate and mediate in crisis situations. Countries that have demonstrated diplomatic skills at the global level can strengthen the functioning of the Council, as was the case with Brazil on many occasions.

The selection of new permanent and non-permanent members of the Security Council should be based on a combination of these criteria. Doing so would strengthen the Council’s representativeness, legitimacy and effectiveness, allowing it to better respond to current and future global challenges.

However, enlargement could have the opposite effect on the Council’s effectiveness. A body with more members would face difficulties in reaching consensus, especially in critical situations that require rapid responses. If the number of actors increases significantly, the risk of paralysis due to disagreements also increases, which could reduce the Council’s capacity to act effectively in international crises. This is undoubtedly one of the biggest challenges reform will face.

The Security Council would be more representative and democratic with more members, but at the cost of greater complexity in decision-making. The key question remains how to balance these two needs: representation and efficiency. However, as long as major powers, in particular Russia and the US, remain reluctant to reform the veto, substantial progress on veto reform will remain a challenge.

A New Horizon for Global Governance

The Compact for the Future goes beyond Security Council reform. It seeks to restructure global governance as a whole, adapting multilateral institutions to the emerging challenges of the 21st century, such as digitalisation, artificial intelligence, climate change and growing inequality.

One of the most innovative points of the pact is the Global Digital Compact, which sets out commitments to responsibly regulate emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, in order to bridge the digital divide and prevent these tools from deepening global inequalities.

The ‘Declaration for Future Generations’ is a commitment adopted by countries to protect the rights and well-being of future generations, ensuring that today’s decisions do not compromise the ability of future generations to enjoy the same rights and opportunities. This is the objective of this document or at least what was stated during the Summit days at the time of the adoption of the document.

This declaration sets out for the first time key principles on sustainability, intergenerational equity and long-term responsibility in global governance under this new term ‘Future Generations’. It underlines the importance of addressing global challenges such as climate change, environmental degradation, sustainable development and the protection of natural resources, in order to ensure a viable future for the next generations.

According to the UN publication in March 2023, the term ‘future generations refers to all the people who will come after us’. In this sense, they express an important concern about present actions and how these are already influencing the lives of these generations and their ability to effectively fulfil all their rights. According to this document (United Nations, 2023) ‘They are not part of the present generations; according to current demographic projections, they will be much more numerous’.

The Pact for the Future also stresses the need to reform international financial institutions, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, to make them more responsive to the needs of developing countries and to promote a fairer and more equitable economic system in a world where Europe and the United States are clearly over-represented. The document highlights in an unprecedented way important and urgent issues, such as the debt of developing countries or the creation of an international tax system. This innovative idea, based on the creation of a forum for dialogue between heads of state and government and the leaders of international financial institutions, aims to put the United Nations back at the centre of the global economic debate.

Engaging New Non-Governmental Actors

One of the most important achievements of the Future Summit was the inclusion of non-governmental actors in the discussions. Representatives from NGOs, the private sector, academia and civil society played a crucial role in developing proposals to address global challenges such as violence, poverty and digitalisation.

Hundreds of personalities, world leaders from all sectors and a huge number of young people gathered two days before the Summit for the second ‘Action Days’. These days emphasised the high rates of genocide and femicide, the need for change to be real and not just written lines as a real tool for change. The importance of fighting to reduce inequalities around the world was also stressed.

They focused on 3 priority themes: digitalisation and technology – peace and security – sustainable development and financing. Beyond these themes, it was concluded that there is a need for an innovative approach, with new ideas for old and new problems, and that the role of civil society in the implementation of the Compact is crucial to move from wishful thinking to concrete roadmaps for the implementation of key actions.

Civil society, academia, non-governmental organisations and the private sector are essential in the implementation of the actions agreed in the compact, as they can monitor the process, bring innovative perspectives and resources to solve global problems. This ‘whole-of-society governance’ approach is key to making the UN more inclusive and effective in its decision-making.

Conclusions: Reform as the Only Option for Peace

The Summit of the Future was a turning point in the search for solutions to the growing global violence and the limitations of the multilateral system. The adoption of the Compact for the Future marks the beginning of a global effort to modernise the entire UN structure and adapt it to the challenges of the present and the future.

However, for this pact to have a real impact, it is imperative that the entire system be restructured, but above all that the Security Council be reformed. Undoubtedly, this will require resolving the main sticking point of the right of veto. This is a solution that so far has not been found due to the positioning of the powers that are permanent members and the pressures they generate to ensure that this situation does not change.

It will also be very important what happens in the coming months with the large-scale events that are expected: war in Ukraine and Gaza, the escalation and extension to new territories, bringing the conflict to its maximum tension, and on the other hand, what happens with the electoral panorama in countries such as the United States, which will undoubtedly have an impact on the international order.

Adaptation to change is the only constant and it is necessary for this new world to have a multilateral system in line with its own needs and urgencies. The very fact that this Summit, in the context of profound crises, wars, violence and inequalities, has managed to bring together leaders from around 200 countries indicates that there is still some hope in rebuilding and rethinking coexistence in this hyper-globalised world and in working together to solve the great challenges of today and tomorrow. .
In a short time we will reach 10 billion people with gaps that are getting bigger and bigger. As Guterres said at the General Assembly, ‘1% of the population holds 42% of the world’s financial assets’. In addition, climate change is devastating entire communities and severely compromising the future of humanity. If we add to this the conflicts and terrifying wars that are claiming thousands of victims, it is of the utmost necessity to move towards an efficient, inclusive and innovative multilateralism and to make the leap towards global and democratic governance.

In recent years, multilateralism has been the focus of criticism aimed at the inadequacy of these mechanisms to respond to the new risks of our times. It is already known, and this is one of the main arguments that led to the signing of this Pact, that the Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 will not be effectively achieved, and there is even greater despair and lack of confidence due to the direction that events have been taking in recent years with climate change and armed conflicts, but above all due to the challenges that the implications of technologies such as Artificial Intelligence are not yet known to bring.
That is why the commitment to action must be greater. This Summit must produce imperatives that are truly capable of becoming a roadmap for states and for the international community. Even if this Summit is seen by many as a mere meeting with more expressions of desire than concrete actions, it is undoubtedly necessary for this core of intentions to one day become a reality.

Con más dudas que certezas esta Cumbre si bien no marca un antes y un después en el desarrollo del multilateralismo, si se puede rescatar que aún en el contexto que se está viviendo durante este año (con dos guerras tan importantes que están extendiéndose cada vez más, con riesgos cada vez más difíciles de solucionar como las desigualdades, el cambio climático, la pobreza y la violencia) alrededor de 200 países, organizaciones de la sociedad civil, sector académico y sector privado estuvieron reunidos durante días intentando encontrar nuevas soluciones. Aún están muy lejos y estamos quizás en una de las crisis más importantes del multilateralismo, pero no se puede dejar de destacar que estos espacios se sigan celebrando, así sea como un faro de esperanza. 

Many experts agree that all these instances should be more visible. They have to become part of the public debate, they have to reach the citizens’ agenda, so that they are also internalised, defended and this intentionality becomes their own. Much remains to be done, especially in countries of the Global South. But collective solutions and solutions must be found, where the fight against poverty and inequality, as well as the end of violence and war in the world, are a priority.
We need a new, efficient, inclusive, green and feminist multilateral system, and we need it now. The task is monumental, but the success of reform will determine whether the world can collectively and peacefully address the conflicts and crises of the 21st century.

[1] https://news.un.org/es/story/2024/09/153287

References

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