The Middle East is being reconfigured in response to Israel’s disruptive behavior.

Oct 2, 2025 | GATE Opinion, Publications |

Jorge Riquelme, National University of La Plata

 

The cruel and protracted Israeli assault on Gaza, as well as its open fronts in Yemen, Lebanon, and Iran, amid an international scenario marked by war conflicts and the absence of a structuring leadership for global governance, are severely affecting international relations in the Middle East. Added to this is Israel’s strategy of assassinating military and political leaders of Hamas, such as Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh—the latter in Tehran. More recently, the Israeli attack on Qatari territory targeting high-ranking figures of the organization, including negotiators of the ceasefire talks regarding the Gaza war, stands out. This latest attack is particularly significant, considering it is the first Israeli incursion into Qatar, a key country in mediating ceasefire negotiations and home to the largest U.S. military base in the region: the Al Udeid Air Base. Numerous members of the international community—including the Secretary-General of the United Nations—condemned the attack, which represents a serious violation of essential norms of international law.

According to various analysts, Israel’s actions in Qatar reflect a dangerous trend in the region, where Israel appears to be intensifying its foreign attacks with complete impunity, as part of a supposed pursuit of what has been termed “Greater Israel,” which could involve the expansion of its borders into territories of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria. For this, Israel no longer faces a counterbalance from the United States. More than ever, what was once considered the U.S.-sponsored security umbrella—based on military bases in the area, bilateral cooperation, and arms supplies—is showing signs of complete obsolescence and a lack of coherence with the interests of this geographical space—considered a Regional Security Complex, in Barry Buzan’s terms—since proximity to the superpower no longer guarantees security, amid the configuration of a post-hegemonic international scenario, marked by power dispersion and strategic uncertainty.

In light of this, political authorities in the region are increasingly emphasizing the urgent need to promote regional unity and collective resistance against Israel’s geopolitical strategies. The attack on Qatar is once again fueling the crisis in this geographical space, while also encouraging a certain Arab-Muslim unity in the face of a common enemy, simultaneously undermining the Abraham Accords, enthusiastically celebrated during Donald Trump’s first administration—the same Trump who once hoped to earn the Nobel Peace Prize. This comes amid the evident crisis of multilateralism and the ineffectiveness of the United Nations collective security system, established by the San Francisco Charter. On September 29, Donald Trump proposed a 20-point plan for Gaza, which includes the return of hostages and a controversial governance body for the Strip, led by the United States with the participation of Tony Blair. The document was accepted by Netanyahu but did not involve Hamas, which would have to surrender and disarm. Given this, it is unlikely that this initiative will come to fruition, and the situation in Gaza remains far from being resolved.

Israel’s disruptive and unpunished actions are reshaping relations in the Middle East and pushing for regional unity. While a collective security system is not yet visible, efforts to increase cooperation in this area, both within and beyond the region, are becoming increasingly evident. A detailed account of this exceeds the scope of this column, but some relevant events can be highlighted. On September 15, an extraordinary Islamic-Arab Summit on the Israeli military aggression against Qatar was held in Doha. During the meeting, statements strongly condemned the Israeli attack and expressed solidarity with Qatar, while also recognizing the efforts of this country and Egypt to achieve an immediate and complete ceasefire in Gaza and alleviate the suffering of the Palestinian people.

Additionally, it is worth noting that Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, paid a visit to Saudi Arabia, during which various issues were discussed, including economic, defense, and regional cooperation. In the field of defense, Larijani stated: “It has been agreed that these efforts will be carried out through working groups that, God willing, will adopt a more organized structure in the future.”

Also notable is the defense agreement signed on Wednesday, September 17, between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. While the respective authorities have stated that the agreement is not a response to specific countries or events, but rather the institutionalization of long-term cooperation, it is clear that the agreement was strongly driven by the recent Israeli attack on Qatari territory. The document focuses on mutual cooperation in asymmetric threats, air defense, intelligence, and science and technology. As Xavier Villar, a Spanish analyst specializing in Islamic studies, pointed out in a recent column in Tehran Times (September 20, 2025), beyond its strictly bilateral nature, the agreement has repercussions for the region’s geopolitics as a whole, in an international context defined by the withdrawal of the United States as a security guarantor, where West and South Asian countries are showing early signs of building a new, endogenous security architecture, with a reconfiguration of international alliances. In this regard, it is relevant to note that Pakistan maintains strong ties with Iran and, unlike other Islamic countries, has resisted pressures to adopt an anti-Iranian stance, which could pave the way for eventual tripartite cooperation in security matters.

All of this takes place amid growing international recognition of Palestine, as in the cases of Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Portugal, and the United Kingdom, during the opening of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly, heavily focused on the situation in Gaza. As of late September 2025, 157 UN member states out of 193—or 81%—have recognized Palestine. Also significant is the widespread condemnation of Israel, expressed through numerous protests around the world, similar to the demonstrations once held against Hitler in the 1930s. In response, Benjamin Netanyahu has only intensified his actions against the Palestinians. Unfortunately, the word genocide has returned to international debate. Currently, Israel is increasingly seen as an international pariah, an outcast among nations, similar to Pinochet’s Chile or Apartheid South Africa. Undoubtedly, Israel now ranks among the countries with the lowest soft power globally.

Israel’s conduct toward its regional environment, outside the bounds of international law, is reconfiguring relationships in the Middle East, isolating Israel and increasing closeness among Islamic countries. The future of this nascent cooperation remains uncertain. The region is still governed by Realism and power politics, and U.S. behavior remains decisive, so we must still wait to see the policy directions of the unpredictable Donald Trump, as well as the reactions of regional actors. Achieving a collective security system seems unlikely in a context dominated by distrust and instability, but it is undeniable that countries are drawing closer, viewing Israel as their main threat and source of vulnerability.

Jorge Riquelme
PhD in International Relations. Member of the Department of International Security and Defense, Institute of International Relations, National University of La Plata (IRI-UNLP).

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