The Summit of the Future 2024: Towards Security Council Reform?

Sep 6, 2024 | GATE News, Publications |

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Author: Lic. María Paula Ballesteros

 

‘…the world needs ‘truly universal’ multilateral institutions‘ and [the Summit of the Future] will be a unique opportunity to help rebuild trust and adapt outdated multilateral institutions and frameworks to today’s world, on the basis of equity and solidarity…’¹

(Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary-General and President of the Summit of the Future)

Summary

 

The Future Summit 2024 – to be held on 22-23 September 2024 in New York – is shaping up to be a key event in redefining international cooperation and the United Nations System, with a particular focus on the reform of its Security Council (SC), which will be one of the most challenging issues.

Apart from strengthening international institutions, the Future Summit aims to accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and foster more effective cooperation between countries, non-governmental organisations and the private sector. In an increasingly interdependent world, the Summit aims to establish new partnerships and collaborative mechanisms to address global challenges such as climate change, technological innovation and international security. One of the strongest points relates to proposals for reform of the United Nations system and particularly the Security Council.

This issue of Gate Update analyses the debates on the expansion of permanent and non-permanent membership, regional representation, and the modification of the use of the veto, exploring the different reform proposals and their relevance in the current global context.

 

Introduction

 

The Future 2024 Summit represents a new opportunity to review the global governance structures whose highest body, the Security Council, has been central to the maintenance of international peace and security. The Security Council, established in 1945, has been criticised for its lack of representativeness and the concentration of power in the five veto-wielding permanent members (China, the United States, France, the United Kingdom and Russia). The most prominent attempt at reform occurred in 2005, in the context of the UN World Summit, but failed due to a lack of consensus among countries. On this occasion, a new attempt will be made to carry out some reform proposals in order to adapt to current demands and the body’s lack of effectiveness in international conflicts such as Gaza or Ukraine.

In the days leading up to the Summit, world leaders will debate one of the most important documents that will define the destiny of the United Nations System: the adoption of the ‘Compact for the Future’, which will also include the Global Digital Compact and a declaration on Future Generations as annexes. In these documents, new partnerships and collaborative mechanisms to address global challenges such as climate change, technological innovation and international security will be discussed.

 

Proposals and preparatory meetings

 

In preparation for the Summit of the Future, a number of documents were submitted for discussion at the Summit of the Future:

Pact for the Future and ‘Zero Draft’.

This preliminary document², which was prepared by Namibia and Germany (co-facilitators of the Summit), is intended as a starting point for the deliberations at the Summit of the Future. The aim is to be able to set the guidelines for the future with a strong action orientation.

The initiators of the document invited a wide range of groups from various sectors of society both within the UN system itself and from other organisations, civil society networks, non-governmental organisations, the private sector and academia. As a result, the document has gone through three revisions to form the final document.

The so-called ‘Zero Draft’ of the Pact for the Future contains the most important issues, among which is the imperative need to be aware of the new and more dangerous risks that different countries are facing, and especially the effects of these risks on the most vulnerable countries and on future generations. The need to effectively address climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution, desertification and other natural disasters is strongly emphasised. Special emphasis is placed on the fact that, along with these threats, potentialities linked to the progress and development of technologies and knowledge have also been developed, but that they occur in an unequal manner depending on the region of the world in question. It is essential to generate all mechanisms and actions aimed at guaranteeing the fulfilment of the SDGs in the next five years, as established in the 2030 Agenda.

Statement on Future Generations

It is a commitment made by the international community to protect the rights and well-being of future generations, ensuring that today’s decisions do not compromise the ability of future generations to enjoy the same rights and opportunities.

This declaration³ sets out key principles on sustainability, intergenerational equity and long-term responsibility in global governance. It underlines the importance of addressing global challenges such as climate change, environmental degradation, sustainable development and the protection of natural resources, in order to ensure a viable future for the next generations. The third revision of the document, prior to the debate at the Future Summit, can be accessed at the following link:

Global Digital Pact

This agreement⁴ seeks to create an inclusive and sustainable digital ecosystem, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals, and to foster cooperation between governments, the private sector and civil society to ensure that emerging technologies are used for the common good. Its latest revision can be found at: https://www.un.org/techenvoy/sites/www.un.org.techenvoy/files/general/GDC_Rev_3_silence_procedure.pdf

 

 

Preparatory Meetings

 

The preparatory meetings for the Future 2024 Summit have been fundamental in defining the agenda and the issues to be addressed. Conferences, roundtables and specialised workshops have been held involving governments, international organisations, the private sector and civil society. Key meetings that have influenced the summit agenda include:

  • High-Level Advisory Board on Effective Multilateralism (2023): Proposes reforms that can bring about transformative changes in the Global System. There is a document that is the result of a global public consultation with contributions from UN system entities, civil society institutions, academia and other stakeholders.⁵
  • Regional Forum Consultation Documents: These documents compile the opinions of various actors on global governance and Security Council reform, serving as a basis for the formulation of proposals at the summit.
  • Action Plan for SDG Implementation (2024): Details strategies for advancing the SDGs at the global level and enhancing international collaboration.
  • UN General Assembly meetings and statements on Security Council Reform.

Security Council Reform Proposals

 

Reform of the United Nations Security Council has been a recurrent issue on the international agenda, with a first significant attempt in 2005 that failed. One of the major obstacles in 2005 was the lack of consensus among UN member states. While the Group of Four (G4: Germany, Brazil, India and Japan) proposed the inclusion of new permanent members, other groups, led by Italy and Pakistan, opposed any expansion of permanent seats and advocated the increase of non-permanent seats. This lack of unity prevented the expansion of its membership.

The permanent members of the Council showed significant resistance to any changes that would dilute their power, especially with regard to the right of veto. In particular, China and the US strongly opposed the idea of expanding the number of permanent members, which would have altered the balance of power within the Council. Proposals for new permanent members also generated regional tensions. For example, Japan’s candidacy was resisted by China and South Korea, while Brazil’s was questioned by Argentina. These tensions made it difficult to build a global consensus on reform.

With regard to the Reform proposals for this summit, the outlook is good, albeit with some nuances, especially in relation to the right of veto. The most important issues in these proposals and their leaders are detailed below:

 

     1. Expansion of Permanent and Non-Permanent Membership

 

Proposal

Expansion of Permanent Members: It is proposed to include countries such as Germany, Brazil, India and Japan, as well as representatives from Africa and Latin America, to better reflect the current geopolitical reality.
Increase of Non-Permanent Members: It is suggested to increase the number of non-permanent members to improve the representativeness of the Council. Each proposal details the need to increase these seats, especially so that countries that have taken center stage on the international stage, especially countries from the Global South, have significant representation.

Countries that Promote it

G4 (Germany, Brazil, India, Japan): They seek permanent seats and propose that new members have limited veto power. They defend the expansion of the UNSC to 25 members, including 6 new permanent seats and 4 non-permanent seats. The candidacy for permanent seats would correspond to the countries that promote this proposal (Germany, Brazil, India and Japan) and two would be assigned to African countries. They also expressed their willingness to temporarily (in the medium term) renounce the right of veto. In addition, they envisage the creation of three other non-permanent, eligible seats

United for Consensus Coalition (UfC)⁶: proposes to expand the UNSC to 25 members, incorporating 10 new members, all non-permanent, who would be elected for somewhat longer periods and, eventually, would support formulas that allow for longer periods of permanence (e.g., allowing re-election). These new seats would be distributed in a geographically equitable manner, based on the five geopolitical groups operating in the UN

African Union (Ezulwini Consensus): expresses the general agreement reached in 2005 by the 54 member countries of the African Union (AU), which consists of supporting the expansion of the UNSC to 26 members, including 6 new permanent seats with the right of veto. In the enlarged Council, at least 2 permanent seats and 3 non-permanent seats would be held by Africa.

Challenges

Resistance from current permanent members: The five current members show resistance to changes that dilute their power.

Lack of consensus: Differences over which countries should get new permanent seats complicate implementation.

Chances of Success

Moderate. Although enlargement has considerable support, the lack of consensus and resistance from current members make it difficult to achieve.

     2. Greater Regional Representation

 

Proposal

Equitable Regional Representation: Seeks to ensure that all regions have fair representation in both permanent and non-permanent seats.
Rotational System: Proposal to implement a rotating system of permanent seats that ensures balanced representation over time.

Supporting Countries

African Group and Latin American Countries: Have been key advocates for greater regional representation, seeking greater inclusion in Council decisions.

Challenges

Definition of Regional Representation: Diversity within regions makes it difficult to select representatives.

Resistance from the five with veto power: Opposition to significant changes could limit the scope of reform.

Chances of Success

Moderate: Although there is a growing consensus on the need for greater representation, differences in practical implementation could delay reform.

 

    3. Modification of the Use of the Veto

 

Proposal

Limitation of the Veto in Cases of Mass Atrocities: Proposal to restrict the veto in situations of genocide and war crimes.
Collective Veto or Qualified Majority: It is suggested that the veto can only be exercised collectively or with a qualified majority of permanent members.

Countries that Promote it

France and the United Kingdom: They have proposed limiting the use of the veto in serious humanitarian situations.

Developing Countries and NGOs: They defend the limitation or elimination of the veto to avoid blocking crucial actions.

Challenges

Resistance from China, Russia and the United States: These countries oppose any limitation of their veto power, making reforms difficult.

Legal Complexity: Changing the veto requires an amendment to the UN Charter, a complex and difficult process to achieve. Articles 108 and 109 of the UN Charter provide permanent members of the Security Council with veto power over any amendment to the Charter, requiring approval from those countries to change the veto power they possess.

Chances of Success

Low: Resistance from permanent members makes veto reforms unlikely in the near term.

 

Conclusion

 

Since 2005, the geopolitical context has changed considerably, with a more multipolar world and a growing demand from emerging countries for a greater say in global decisions. This shift could increase pressure on current permanent members to agree to reform.

On the other hand, recent global crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change, have underlined the limitations of the Security Council in its current form, increasing international pressure for reform to better reflect global reality.

Unlike in 2005, where proposals were competing with each other, today there is greater recognition of the need for reform. Although differences persist, the current UN administration, under the leadership of Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, has worked to unify member states around a common proposal, as reflected in the Zero Draft presented at the Future Summit.

So while many of the challenges that led to the failure of Security Council reform in 2005 remain, there are new factors that could facilitate reform in 2024. The shift in global dynamics, the greater urgency for effective international governance, and a more unified approach under a Guterres presidency could increase the chances of success. However, the outcome will depend on the ability of member states to overcome their differences and commit to meaningful reform in the face of the new challenges facing the international arena.

[1] UNITED NATIONS, Multilateralism can benefit us all if its institutions are truly universal, UN News, 21 September 2023, available at: https://news.un.org/es/story/2023/09/1524302 [acc. 29/09/23].

[2] Preliminary document Future Summit

[3] Preliminary Document Declaration on Future Generations

[4]  Preliminary Document Global Digital Compact

[5] More information can be found at the following link: https://highleveladvisoryboard.org/breakthrough/ 

[6] Led by Italy, Mexico and Pakistan, and including countries from different continents, the group also includes Argentina and Colombia in Latin America, and Spain in Europe, among others. All the countries that have led this group have some regional rivalry with G4 countries.

 

References

 

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